Men - Women
Tournament Championship Summary
2011 - 2012 - 2013



Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.


RankSchool Regional ChampionTop 5Top 10Top 20Advance to Nationals
1 Oregon West 59.8% 95.4% 99.7% 100.0% 100.0%
2 Florida State South 14.2% 73.9% 95.4% 99.9% 100.0%
3 Stanford West 4.8% 55.2% 90.8% 99.4% 99.6%
4 Providence Northeast 6.3% 59.8% 91.7% 99.7% 99.9%
5 Iowa State Midwest 3.2% 43.9% 84.7% 99.6% 100.0%
6 Arizona West 4.5% 43.6% 80.5% 98.3% 99.3%
7 Washington West 2.6% 30.5% 70.0% 96.2% 98.9%
8 Michigan Great Lakes 1.7% 25.2% 64.8% 96.2% 99.9%
9 Duke Southeast 0.7% 16.1% 54.0% 94.4% 100.0%
10 Connecticut Northeast 1.0% 16.7% 52.2% 93.4% 98.6%
11 Cornell Northeast 0.5% 11.6% 44.3% 91.2% 98.4%
12 Georgetown Mid-Atlantic 0.5% 10.1% 36.7% 86.0% 100.0%
13 Weber State Mountain 0.0% 4.7% 27.9% 84.6% 99.7%
14 Michigan State Great Lakes 0.1% 2.8% 18.2% 71.1% 97.6%
15 Penn State Mid-Atlantic 0.0% 2.5% 15.8% 67.1% 99.5%
16 Arkansas South Central 0.0% 2.0% 12.5% 61.1% 100.0%
17 New Mexico Mountain 1.2% 10.3% 61.8% 98.1%
18 San Francisco West 0.1% 1.5% 8.9% 38.7% 59.7%
19 Notre Dame Great Lakes 0.1% 1.4% 11.0% 56.9% 95.9%
20 Villanova Mid-Atlantic 0.0% 0.2% 3.5% 46.0% 86.1%
21 Boston College Northeast 0.4% 4.8% 41.9% 76.0%
22 William and Mary Southeast 0.2% 3.5% 45.9% 96.8%
23 Minnesota Midwest 0.6% 6.3% 44.8% 98.3%
24 Colorado Mountain 0.2% 4.0% 36.4% 69.2%
25 Oklahoma State Midwest 0.0% 1.4% 20.8% 49.2%
26 Texas South Central 0.0% 0.9% 29.8% 96.4%
27 Kentucky Southeast 0.2% 8.4% 19.5%
28 Yale Northeast 0.0% 3.2% 27.8%
29 Toledo Great Lakes 0.1% 0.9% 18.9% 73.4%
30 Florida South 0.0% 0.9% 19.1% 88.8%
31 North Carolina St. Southeast 0.1% 1.2% 17.8% 64.1%
32 UC Davis West 0.0% 0.2% 3.5% 8.1%
33 Vanderbilt South 0.0% 0.3% 13.6% 90.5%
34 UCLA West 0.0% 0.6% 11.1% 45.7%
35 Syracuse Northeast 0.0% 0.8% 10.7% 28.0%
36 Butler Great Lakes 0.1% 4.8% 19.6%
37 Wisconsin Great Lakes 0.2% 4.1% 24.2%
38 Princeton Mid-Atlantic 0.4% 7.0% 32.7%
39 North Carolina Southeast 0.0% 0.5% 7.7%
40 Brown Northeast 0.0% 0.6% 3.9%
41 Harvard Northeast 0.1% 3.4% 14.5%
42 Dartmouth Northeast 0.9% 10.9%
43 Ohio U. Great Lakes 0.0% 0.6%
44 Utah Mountain 0.2%
45 Southern Utah Mountain 1.5% 7.4%
46 Northwestern Midwest 0.1% 2.0% 14.9%
47 Georgia South 0.0% 2.2% 25.7%
48 Iowa Midwest 0.0% 0.4%
49 Cal Poly West 0.0% 0.3%
50 Portland West 0.1% 0.7% 3.7%
51 SMU South Central 1.4% 24.0%
52 BYU Mountain 0.5% 6.8%
53 Mississippi South 0.7% 13.9%
54 Ohio State Great Lakes 0.6% 4.8%
55 Virginia Southeast 0.3%
56 Arizona State West 0.2%
57 Indiana Great Lakes 0.2% 5.1%
58 La Salle Mid-Atlantic 0.0% 0.6%
59 Columbia Northeast 0.4% 2.9%
60 Illinois Midwest 0.1% 1.5%
61 Colorado St. Mountain 0.3% 3.6%
62 Boise State West 0.1%
63 James Madison Southeast 0.0% 0.8%
64 California West 0.0%
65 Northern Arizona Mountain 0.2%
66 West Virginia Mid-Atlantic 0.0% 1.2%
67 Baylor South Central 0.0% 0.9%
68 Wichita State Midwest
69 Navy Mid-Atlantic
70 New Hampshire Northeast 0.0% 0.0%
71 Tulsa Midwest 0.0% 1.7%
72 Gonzaga West 0.1%
73 Clemson Southeast 0.3%
74 Stony Brook Northeast 0.1%
75 Loyola Marymount West
76 Samford South
77 New Mexico St. Mountain
78 Air Force Mountain 0.1%
79 Kansas State Midwest
80 LSU South Central 0.5%
81 TCU South Central 0.0%
82 South Carolina Southeast
83 Iona Northeast 0.0%
84 Loyola (Ill.) Midwest
85 UC Santa Barbara West
86 Illinois State Midwest
87 Purdue Great Lakes 0.1%
88 North Dakota St. Midwest 0.0%
89 Wake Forest Southeast
90 UC Riverside West
91 Utah Valley Mountain
92 Missouri Midwest
93 Richmond Southeast
94 Vermont Northeast 0.0%
95 Georgia State South
96 UTEP Mountain
97 Liberty Southeast
98 Stephen F. Austin South Central
99 Alabama South 0.1%
100 USC Upstate Southeast
101 Texas A&M South Central 0.2%
102 Duquesne Mid-Atlantic
103 UAB South
104 Utah State Mountain
105 Saint Louis Midwest
106 East Carolina Southeast
107 Arkansas State South Central 0.0%
108 Eastern Kentucky Southeast
109 Miami (Ohio) Great Lakes 0.0%
110 Albany Northeast
111 Southern Miss. South
112 Miss State South
113 Appalachian State Southeast
114 Penn Mid-Atlantic 0.0%
115 Nevada Mountain
116 Virginia Tech Southeast
117 Idaho West
118 UTSA South Central
119 Kansas Midwest
120 Washington St. West
121 Lipscomb South
122 Dayton Great Lakes
123 Jacksonville South
124 Long Beach St. West
125 Wyoming Mountain
126 Eastern Michigan Great Lakes
127 Tennessee South
128 Boston U. Northeast
129 Army Northeast
130 North Florida South
131 USC West
132 Southern Illinois Midwest
133 Bradley Midwest
134 Belmont South
135 Oregon State West
136 Central Michigan Great Lakes
137 Northern Colorado Mountain
138 Xavier (Ohio) Great Lakes
139 Auburn South
140 Idaho State Mountain
141 Sacred Heart Northeast
142 Elon Southeast
143 Eastern Illinois Midwest
144 Georgia Tech South
145 South Dakota St. Midwest
146 Oakland Great Lakes
147 St. Joseph's (Pa.) Mid-Atlantic
148 Montana State Mountain
149 George Mason Southeast
150 UNC-Greensboro Southeast
151 Oklahoma Midwest
152 Marquette Great Lakes
153 Akron Great Lakes
154 Northern Iowa Midwest
155 South Dakota Midwest
156 Drake Midwest
157 Evansville Great Lakes
158 Furman Southeast
159 Bryant Northeast
160 Rice South Central
161 San Diego West
162 Murray State Southeast
163 Buffalo Northeast
164 Bowling Green Great Lakes
165 Delaware Mid-Atlantic
166 Quinnipiac Northeast
167 Santa Clara West
168 Maryland Mid-Atlantic
169 Winthrop Southeast
170 Bucknell Mid-Atlantic
171 Marist Northeast
172 San Diego St. West
173 Sam Houston St. South Central
174 Western Kentucky Southeast
175 High Point Southeast
176 Kent State Great Lakes
177 Davidson Southeast
178 Fresno State West
179 Cal St. Fullerton West
180 Indiana State Great Lakes
181 Charlotte Southeast
182 Sacramento St. West
183 Cincinnati Great Lakes
184 Rutgers Mid-Atlantic
185 Loyola (Md.) Mid-Atlantic
186 UC Irvine West
187 Va. Military Institute Southeast
188 Texas-Pan American South Central
189 Seattle U. West
190 Texas-Arlington South Central
191 Chattanooga South
192 South Florida South
193 Rhode Island Northeast
194 Lehigh Mid-Atlantic
195 Fordham Northeast
196 Northern Illinois Midwest
197 Texas A&M-CC South Central
198 Rider Mid-Atlantic
199 North Dakota Midwest
200 UCF South
201 Coastal Carolina Southeast
202 Nebraska Midwest
203 Lamar South Central
204 Western Carolina Southeast
205 Pittsburgh Mid-Atlantic
206 Tulane South Central
207 East Tenn. St. South
208 Youngstown St. Great Lakes
209 St. Mary's (Cal.) West
210 SE Missouri Midwest
211 George Washington Mid-Atlantic
212 UMass Amherst Northeast
213 IPFW Great Lakes
214 UNC-Asheville Southeast
215 IUPUI Great Lakes
216 Illinois-Chicago Midwest
217 Binghamton Northeast
218 Western Michigan Great Lakes
219 UNC-Wilmington Southeast
220 Wofford Southeast
221 Memphis South
222 Texas Tech Mountain
223 Marshall Mid-Atlantic
224 Maine Northeast
225 Ball State Great Lakes
226 McNeese State South Central
227 North Texas South Central
228 Mercer South
229 Morehead State Southeast
230 Kennesaw State South
231 Monmouth Mid-Atlantic
232 Central Connecticut Northeast
233 Colgate Northeast
234 South Alabama South
235 Cal St. Northridge West
236 Portland State West
237 Texas State South Central
238 Missouri State Midwest
239 Hartford Northeast
240 Temple Mid-Atlantic
241 Fairfield Northeast
242 Mid. Tenn. State South
243 UMBC Mid-Atlantic
244 Central Arkansas South Central
245 Towson Mid-Atlantic
246 Holy Cross Northeast
247 Campbell Southeast
248 UMKC Midwest
249 Louisville Southeast
250 Col. of Charleston Southeast
251 Houston South Central
252 San Jose St. West
253 Canisius Northeast
254 St. John's Northeast
255 Mount St. Mary's Mid-Atlantic
256 Wis.-Green Bay Great Lakes
257 UNLV West
258 Creighton Midwest
259 Lafayette Mid-Atlantic
260 Florida Gulf Coast South
261 Miami South
262 Robert Morris Mid-Atlantic
263 Western Illinois Midwest
264 American Mid-Atlantic
265 Jacksonville St. South
266 DePaul Midwest
267 Niagara Northeast
268 Florida A&M South
269 Wagner Northeast
270 Montana Mountain
271 Houston Baptist South Central
272 Wis.-Milwaukee Great Lakes
273 SIU-Edwardsville Midwest
274 Seton Hall Mid-Atlantic
275 Alabama State South
276 Pepperdine West
277 St. Bonaventure Northeast
278 St. Francis (Pa.) Mid-Atlantic
279 Mississippi Valley South
280 Florida Int'l South
281 Charleston Southern Southeast
282 Valparaiso Great Lakes
283 Florida Atlantic South
284 Manhattan Northeast
285 Siena Northeast
286 Nicholls State South Central
287 Eastern Washington West
288 Hampton Southeast
289 Northeastern Northeast
290 Arkansas-Little Rock South Central
291 Pacific West
292 Hawaii West
293 St. Francis (N.Y.) Northeast
294 New Jersey Institute Mid-Atlantic
295 Austin Peay South
296 Wright State Great Lakes
297 UL-Lafayette South Central
298 Tennessee-Martin South
299 Longwood Southeast
300 Citadel Southeast
301 Hofstra Northeast
302 Northwestern St. South Central
303 Tennessee Tech South
304 Troy South
305 Radford Southeast
306 Gardner-Webb Southeast
307 Cal St. Bakersfield West
308 Cleveland St. Great Lakes
309 Oral Roberts Midwest
310 Delaware State Mid-Atlantic
311 Georgia Southern South
312 UL-Monroe South Central
313 Maryland-Eastern Shore Mid-Atlantic
314 Morgan State Mid-Atlantic
315 VCU Southeast
316 Alcorn State South
317 Stetson South
318 Grambling South Central
319 South Carolina St. Southeast
320 N. Carolina A&T Southeast
321 SE Louisiana South Central
322 Prairie View South Central
323 Norfolk State Southeast
324 Howard Mid-Atlantic
325 N.C. Central Southeast
326 Fairleigh Dickinson Mid-Atlantic
327 Bethune-Cookman South
328 St. Peter's Mid-Atlantic
329 Texas Southern South Central
330 Alabama A&M South
331 Jackson State South
332 Coppin State Mid-Atlantic
333 Savannah State South
334 Tennessee St. South
335 Presbyterian Southeast
336 Arkansas-Pine Bluff South Central
337 Southern South Central
338 Louisiana Tech South Central
339 Chicago State Midwest
340 100.0%
341 100.0%
342 100.0%
343 100.0%
344 100.0%
345 100.0%
346 100.0%
347 100.0%
348 100.0%
349 100.0%
350 100.0%
351 100.0%
352 100.0%
353 100.0%
354 100.0%
355 100.0%
356 100.0%
357 100.0%
358 100.0%
359 100.0%
360 100.0%
361 100.0%
362 100.0%
363 100.0%
364 100.0%
365 100.0%
366 100.0%
367 100.0%
368 100.0%
369 100.0%
370 100.0%
371 100.0%
372 100.0%
373 100.0%
374 100.0%
375 100.0%
376 100.0%
377 100.0%
378 100.0%
379 100.0%
380 100.0%
381 100.0%
382 100.0%
383 100.0%
384 100.0%
385 100.0%
386 100.0%
387 100.0%
388 100.0%
389 100.0%
390 100.0%
391 100.0%
392 100.0%
393 100.0%
394 100.0%
395 100.0%
396 100.0%
397 100.0%
398 100.0%
399 100.0%
400 100.0%